I have written and spoken about the importance of a yield curve steepening for Emas, which would be triggered by a recession and bear market that leads to a plunge in short-term yields. However, I neglected to mention the curve can also steepen because long-term yields rise faster than short-term yields.
Inflation indicators, including long-term bond yields, could threaten to make new highs in the weeks and months ahead. This aligns with a delayed recession that is not imminent and several quarters away.
If the Fed ends its hikes soon but inflation indicators are pushing higher, it could lead to an inflationary steepening of the curve. The 10-year yield would continue to rise as short-term yields stop rising as the Fed is done. Perhaps this is why Gold is holding up well and failed to break $1900.
