The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will released the CPI report on wednesday 2.30 pm Beirut Time.Forecast expect inflation to fall from 6.0% to 5.2% on Y/Y.
PPI and Retail Sales will be released on Thursday amd Friday. Forecast expect a positive PPI and a negative Retail Sales.
In my personnal opinion, we will have mixed data reports, showing inflation falling in some sectors and growing in others. I expect a “higher” CPI as per 5.4 or 5.5% Y/Y. Alternative scenario : a number lower than 5.2% will be negative for the US dollar and positive for the stocks and especially to the Gold.
Usually, CPI, PPI and Retail Sales have the same direction and the Investors will face a big volatile week starting on Wednesday due to the mixed expecations in these major reports.
The Fed will watch closely all these reports because it could lead to more IR hike in the near future.
