Phân tíchTổng quan thị trườngWill the Fed Skip Interest Rate in June ?

Will the Fed Skip Interest Rate in June ?

After a shocking JOLTS, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Consumer Spending reports, we might see a positive NFP and a negative Unemployment Rate.

On the other hand, the PCE is still to high for the Fed to pause increasing interest rate ; but we might see a negative CPI this month due to the decline in oil prices and in the house sector.

Today, the probability to pause interest rate is around 80% as Jerome Powel said. But, for me, the market will be surprised by another 25 bps if we get a positive CPI. If not, the oil prices will jump automatically, leading to a positive CPI in July and more and more interest rate hike.

For that, the gold will remain the “Safe Heaven” of the year and he might hit new highs soon.

 

Johnny
Johnny
Ph.D in Economics
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