After a shocking JOLTS, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Consumer Spending reports, we might see a positive NFP and a negative Unemployment Rate.
On the other hand, the PCE is still to high for the Fed to pause increasing interest rate ; but we might see a negative CPI this month due to the decline in oil prices and in the house sector.
Today, the probability to pause interest rate is around 80% as Jerome Powel said. But, for me, the market will be surprised by another 25 bps if we get a positive CPI. If not, the oil prices will jump automatically, leading to a positive CPI in July and more and more interest rate hike.
For that, the gold will remain the “Safe Heaven” of the year and he might hit new highs soon.
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