First, we must know that everyone has become aware that raising the interest rate will be 25 points, according to statistics and expectations that indicate 25 points, but the most important thing is the speech after the issuance of the decision to raise the interest rate, as Jerome Powell will have to talk about inflation and the period for which interest will remain high, which will lead to The occurrence of strong fluctuations in the markets (this does not mean that the Fed will not fix the interest rate at this meeting, so the speech is important)
The first scenario: It is to raise the interest rate in this meeting by 25 basis points, and half an hour after the decision, there will be a talk by the Federal Reserve Governor (Jerome Powell) in which he talks about confirmation that there will be another increase in interest rates if inflation continues as it is and in the event of this scenario. It will have a positive effect on the movements of the dollar and negatively on gold and US stocks.
The second scenario: It is to raise the interest by 25 basis points, and after the decision, half an hour later, Jerome Powell will talk about inflation that it has become better than it was and started to decline. Therefore, we will temporarily stop any matter related to tightening monetary policy, and of course he will link the issue of raising interest with the upcoming economic data that will be issued On the basis of this data, the Federal Reserve will determine whether or not there will be another hike. In the event of this scenario, it will have a temporary negative impact on the dollar index.
The third scenario: the US Federal Reserve fixing interest, and Jerome Powell will talk after the decision about calming inflation rates and reaching the declared goal. Therefore, it is necessary to wait in taking new decisions regarding raising interest rates. In the event that this scenario occurs, it will be negative on the dollar index and positive on gold and stocks (of course, an unlikely option, but it must That we take caution and caution in our trading as a result of the issuance of any decision contrary to expectations)
