Fundamental Overview
Against the backdrop of worries about a global economic slowdown, a revolt by Russian mercenaries over the weekend raised concerns about political instability in the country and lends some support to the safe-haven Gold price. It is worth recalling that a clash between Moscow and the Russian mercenary group Wagner was averted on Saturday after the heavily armed mercenaries withdrew from the southern Russian city of Rostov under a deal that halted their rapid advance on the capital. Apart from this, the emergence of some selling around the US Dollar (USD) turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the XAU/USD.
Following two days of goodish recovery from the lowest level since May 11, the USD kicks off the new week on a softer note in the wake of a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields. That said, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) signal that borrowing costs may still need to rise as much as 50 bps by the end of this year should limit the downside for the US bond yields and the USD. Apart from this, a more hawkish stance adopted by global major central banks might further contribute to capping gains for the non-yielding Gold price and warrants some caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.
In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD has formed a near-term bottom. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday. Investors this week will further confront the release of important US macro data, including the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). This will influence Fed rate-hike expectations and provide a fresh directional impetus to Gold price.
