Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession

The US economy is confusing: Jobs are surging. Inflation has been cooling but still running relatively hot. Gas prices are on the rebound. Consumers keep spending, and their confidence is growing. But holiday saleswere tepid. Corporate layoffs are mounting. Company earnings aren’t stellar. And mortgage rates are ticking higher.

In a time when the economic data has delivered mixed messages or flat out busted expectations, economists’ predictions for the year ahead are growing increasingly opaque.

The National Association for Business Economics’ latest survey, released Monday, shows a “significant divergence” among respondents about where they think the US economy is heading in 2023, the organization’s president said.