分析商品Yield Curve Steepening Could Ignite Gold Rush

Yield Curve Steepening Could Ignite Gold Rush

I have written about the importance of a bear market, recession, and Fed shift for a gold bull market. But today, I want to be more precise.

There has to be a potential tipping point that precedes these catalysts.

Markets anticipate the near future and slowly discount it as it becomes a probability and later a certainty.

In the chart below, we plot gold, gold against the stock market, the stock market, the United States 2-Year yield, and the yield curve (10-Year yield less the 2-year yield).

The red line marks the final rate hike, while the blue line marks the first rate cut (in that cycle). Focus on the gold to S&P 500 ratio, stock market peaks (black arrows), and the yield curve.

The gold to S&P 500 ratio did not gain traction to the upside until the first rate cut. The circles coincide with the rate cuts. Note the yield curve begins to steepen (turn higher) before the rate cut.

Concerning the stock market, every cycle is different, but the move from hikes to cuts because of a recession is very bearish, which is super bullish for precious metals.

c1

Since gold’s peak in May, bond yields have rebounded, and the stock market has broken out. The inversion in the yield curve has intensified.

As you can see below (yellow), these things are moving against gold for now.

c2

In short, the steepening of the yield curve will mark the turning point for the gold market because that precedes the start of rate cuts.

The yield curve began to steepen in the spring with the multiple bank failures, but the Fed was able to paper over that, and the economy has avoided recession for now.

The stock market should peak around the time the Fed ends its rate hikes.

How quickly the yield curve steepens depends on the health of the economy. The closer we are to a recession, and the faster it hits means, the closer the yield curve is to steepening and gold starting its breakout move.

Speculators and investors have time to research and uncover the best opportunities while they remain cheap. This correction is also the time to reconsider the strong stocks you missed.

ジョーダン-ロイ-バーン-CMT23
ジョーダン-ロイ-バーン-CMT23
I’m Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA the editor and publisher of TheDailyGold.com and TheDailyGold Premium, our premium publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection for precious metals investors. I’m a Chartered Market Technician and Master of Financial Technical Analysis. My Masters Thesis, which earned me the MFTA designation was published in the International Federation of Technical Analysis Journal. I earned a degree in General Studies from the University of Washington with a concentration in International Economic Development. In my spare time I enjoy weightlifting, following sports, National Parks, classic mob movies and traveling with my outdoors enthusiast wife. TheDailyGold I started TheDailyGold.com in 2009 although the genesis was in 2005 when I started a free newsletter covering commodities with an emphasis on Gold & Silver. We offer quite a bit of free content here and can help you whether you are a seasoned investor or this is your first time stumbling upon Gold and the junior mining world. First, go here to obtain a copy of our 2019 Book The Coming New Bull Market in Gold: Why Precious Metals Investments Will Flourish in the 2020s and 2030s. From there, we will also send you our weekly newsletter, which includes our latest content and thoughts on Gold and gold stocks. The book contains all of our best research on Gold and lays out what you can expect from the economy, capital markets and precious metals over the next 10 to 15 years. It is very important to me to educate people and help them profit immensely and avoid losing real wealth, which will deteriorate if you hold US-based assets over the next 10 to 15 years. Next, be sure to subscribe to our YouTube Channel as well as our podcasts: TheDailyGold Podcast and the new, 10-Bagger Podcast. Contact I can be reached at Jordan @ The Daily Gold . com (spaces removed to prevent spam). I try to answer every email but emails from subscribers are paramount. We currently are not interested in any advertising and we do not accept any guest posts or sponsored posts.
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